博客与个人写作2015vox.com
安德鲁·沙利文停笔，说明博客的未来会怎样
What Andrew Sullivan's exit says about the future of blogging
导读
Vox 这篇文章以 Andrew Sullivan 停止博客为例，讨论博客的未来；评论区把问题拆成平台分发、更新强度与变现模式三层。对写作者来说，它提醒我们：内容之外，读者触达、持续产出和商业可持续同样决定一个写作项目能否长久。
可以直接用的写作要点
- 01
不要把读者关系全部押在单一平台：算法、信息流和付费规则会改变触达，写作者应建立可直接触达读者的渠道。
- 02
为持续更新设计可持续节奏：高频更新是留住读者的代价，间歇性长文容易让读者流失，可用栏目化、短评、聚合加点评降低单篇成本。
- 03
个人单打独斗很难支撑高频内容，必要时采用群博客、客座作者或转型为在线杂志，但要清楚它与传统媒体线上版的差异。
- 04
垂直受众和鲜明定位有商业价值，但名气不等于可持续收入；写作计划要同时算内容成本和分发成本。
HN 评论精选
平台从开放搜索走向算法与社交围墙，写作者的分发权不断被平台规则和付费门槛收紧。
博客的出现让大型媒体控制之外的个体声音能触达自己的受众。也正因为如此，10年前没人想把AOL当围墙花园，大家都想自己搜索和发现。Google的算法让声音得以浮现，但也催生SEO产业来操纵这个分发渠道，使其更难。今天大多数人从不离开Facebook，而FB新的信息流规则将确保你必须付费才能被听见。所以也许Facebook已经像AOL，像更早的印刷巨头。又到了颠覆的时候？
julianpye查看英文原文
The emergence of blogging allowed individual voices outside of control of the larger media to reach their own audiences. Because of this 10 years ago noone wanted to have AOL as their walled garden. Everyone wanted to search and discover themselves. Google brought an algorithm that allowed voices to emerge, but it also spawned the SEO industry to manipulate that distribution channel and make it more difficult. Today most people never leave Facebook and FB's new feed rules will make sure that you have to pay to be heard. So maybe Facebook has become like AOL, has become like the print magnates even prior to that. Time for disruption again?
博客的日更强度与低回报使多数个人博客难以持续，最终要么群博客化/杂志化，要么退化为新闻聚合。
Sullivan退出其实说明不了什么。写博客很费工且报酬不高，他能坚持这么久已经令人意外。我认识很多人尝试写博客，但太苦，大多半年左右就放弃。发帖间隔越来越长，像渐近死亡螺旋，最后发一篇短帖基本说“我不干了”。问题是，要让人们保持兴趣，内容必须每天多次更新。你不能只在觉得有重要话要说时每隔几天发一篇——大多数潜在读者会流失。绝大多数想赚钱的人放弃独自产出这么多内容，加入某种群博客（或有客座博主，像Kos）。那时它更像在线杂志而非博客。我想的是Huffpo和Gawker这类网站。作为商业/创作模式，它们与大西洋月刊或国家评论的线上存在有何不同？仍在自己博客产出全部内容的人，大多只是新闻聚合器：给链接，写个笑话或一句话说明为何重要，这条就完了。
tsotha查看英文原文
Andrew Sullivan's exit really doesn't mean very much. Blogging is a lot of work and doesn't pay very well, so it's kind of a surprise he lasted this long. I know a whole lot of people who tried to write a blog, but it's such a grind they pretty much gave up after six months or so (on the outside). The time between posts gets longer and longer in some sort of asymptotic death spiral, and eventually they put up a short post that says, basically, "I quit". The problem is to keep people interested in your stuff the content has to change multiple times per day. You can't just write a single post every couple days when you feel like you have something important to say - most of your potential readers will drift away. The vast majority of people trying to make money gave up trying to produce that much content by themselves and joined some sort of group blog (or have "guest bloggers", like Kos). At that point it's less a blog and more of an online magazine. I'm thinking sites like Huffpo and Gawker. As a business/creative model, how are they different from the online presence of The Atlantic or National Review? Most of the people who still produce all the content on their blog are really just news aggregators. Provide a link, write a joke or a sentence indicating why it's important, and your done with that post.
Sullivan退出是个人选择，不能据此断言博客模式失败。
规模可能对博客是个问题，但Sullivan的退出说明不了这一点。他只是想把时间投入生活中的其他事情。
thanatosmin查看英文原文
Scale may be a problem for blogging, but Andrew Sullivan's exit says nothing about it. He simply wants to devote time to other things in his life.
即便拥有知名度和高价值垂直受众，独立博客的变现仍可能不足，说明内容创业不能只靠流量名气。
我不是Sullivan最大的粉丝，但是……如果Sullivan都没法作为博客作者成功，谁还能？Sullivan有富裕、受过教育的受众，对广告商应是诱人猎物——尤其他在同性恋和政治自由派小众中有独特影响力。他可能是当今最知名的博客作者，Dish的受众还承接自他在The Atlantic的工作。而且经营网站虽不易，所需资本与几乎所有其他出版形式相比都很少。如果他都不行，还有谁行？更不用说管理/人员成本更重的报纸杂志。
Chevalier查看英文原文
I'm not Sullivan's biggest fan, but... if Sullivan can't make it as a blogger, who can? Sullivan has a wealthy, educated audience that should be catnip to advertisers -- particularly with his particularly distinct influence among gay and politically liberal niches. He's possibly the most well-known blogger today and his Dish audience piggybacks from his previous work with The Atlantic. And while it's not easy to run a website, the capital required is minimal compared to virtually any other form of publication. If he can't make it, can anyone? Much less a publication with heavier administrative and staff costs like virtually every newspaper or magazine.
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