出版与作家生涯2016fooledbyrandomness.com
《非对称风险》章节草稿，作者：纳西姆·塔勒布
Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb
导读
这是 Hacker News 上关于塔勒布《Skin in the Game》章节草稿的讨论，围绕少数人如何左右多数、无切身利害的专家批评以及作者自信语气展开。写作者可从中学习如何用反直觉案例和可核验数据构建犀利论证，也可反思权威语气与自疑的平衡。
可以直接用的写作要点
- 01
先给反直觉机制，再给具体后果，例如“一小部分人反对转基因→转基因消亡”，比抽象说“少数很关键”更有力。
- 02
批评权威时列可核验的具体失败：复现率、政策反转、预测错误；用排比短句增强节奏。
- 03
观点鲜明不等于绝对化：在强调随机性的话题中主动写限定条件和反例，能避免“过度自信”削弱可信度。
- 04
点名批评要有依据和透明性：公开数据、开源材料、具体对象和例子，比空泛骂“专家”更可信。
HN 评论精选
观点越强调随机性，作者越应展示自疑和限定，否则绝对语气会损害可信度。
对写出《Fooled by…》（我最喜欢的书之一）的人来说，塔勒布在陈述个人假说时似乎毫不自我怀疑。我能忽略他居高临下的语气，尤其对富人和“伪”知识分子的语气，但他对自己观点的确信——尤其在他反复强调我们被随机性包围之后——在我看来削弱了他作为评论者的可信度。
mayukh查看英文原文
For somebody who wrote 'Fooled by ..' one of my favorite books of all time, he certainly doesn't seem to suffer from self-doubt when it comes to stating his personal hypotheses. I can look past his condescending tone (especially towards the wealthy and 'pseudo' intellectuals), but his certitude in his own ideas -- especially after pressing home the point that we are surrounded by randomness -- tarnishes his punditry in my view.
用“小比例人群导致系统性结果”的反直觉例子，能让抽象机制变得具体可感。
关于少数人支配多数的章节很有洞见。他提到，哪怕只有一小部分人反对转基因，转基因也会消亡。想到前几天这里关于“贴标签”的辩论，这点很值得警惕。
Houshalter查看英文原文
The chapter about minorities ruling majorities was really insightful. He mentioned how if even a small percent of people become anti GMO, then GMOs will die out. A scary thing to keep in mind with the whole "label it" debate that was on here a few days ago.
列举可核验的复现率与政策失败案例，把抽象批评落到证据上，并用排比增强气势。
塔勒布在 Facebook 上说，从印度到英美，人们反抗的是无切身利害的政策“文员”和内部记者/专家阶层：他们教我们做什么、吃什么、怎么说话思考、给谁投票。他列举心理学复现率不足40%、膳食建议30年后反转、宏观分析比占星还差、微观论文40%错误、药物试验仅1/5复现等，认为人们有权依赖祖辈直觉。
jkldotio查看英文原文
Here are two Facebook posts from Taleb related to the topic and a ~3 minute video that has the main point. "The establishment composed of journos, BS-Vending talking heads with well-formulated verbs, bureaucrato-cronies, lobbyists-in training, New Yorker-reading semi-intellectuals, image-conscious empty suits, Washington rent-seekers and other "well thinking" members of the vocal elites are not getting the point about what is happening and the sterility of their arguments. People are not voting for Trump (or Sanders). People are just voting, finally, to destroy the establishment." - 7th March - https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153654273663375 "What we are seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking "clerks" and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think... and 5) who to vote for. With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30y of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, microeconomic papers wrong 40% of the time, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating only 1/5th of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers with a better track record than these policymaking goons. Indeed one can see that these academico-bureaucrats wanting to run our lives aren't even rigorous, whether in medical statistics or policymaking. I have shown that most of what Cass-Sunstein-Richard Thaler types call "rational" or "irrational" comes from misunderstanding of probability theory." - 9th March - https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153658794008375 "Nassim Taleb: Skin in the Game" - 2m48s - 22nd April - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uc4DI-BF28
鲜明、敢点名和开源依据能增强说服力，但“风格好而不伟大”提醒犀利不等于好文笔。
我期待读他的书。他的写作风格好但不算伟大。我对很多“傲慢”指控感到意外；他的傲慢可能被误解，因为他愿意指出别人在他看来是胡扯的东西。我们需要更多人指出胡扯，比如美国大选、主流媒体、CNBC、孟山都、华尔街。一个公开说沙特是野蛮/恐怖国家、质疑美联储、在社区大学教书、持续开源书籍和数学的人，大概不属于建制派，所以招人不喜欢。当然华尔街多数人不喜欢他，是因为不懂他的理论。
chad_strategic查看英文原文
I look forward to reading his book. His writing style is good but not great. I'm surprised about a lot of accusation of arrogance,etc... From what I have read his arrogance, might be misconceived as he is willingness to call out anybody on what he perceived as their BS. We need more people to call others out on their BS. (US elections, MSM, cnbc, Mosanto, wall street...) Anybody that open comes out and says Saudi Arabia is a barbaric / terrorist state, (which the US Gov, seems to over look for years) questions the Federal Reserve, teaches at community college. Constantly, open sources his books and math. Probably isn't part of the establishment and hence might be driving peoples dislike. Of course most people on Wall St. don't like him because they don't understand his theories or his thoughts. He has great twitter feed. (He retweeted me once!)
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