小说与文学2015themillions.com
一部做出准确预测的1969年新浪潮科幻小说
A 1969 New Wave Sci-Fi Novel That Made Correct Predictions
导读
这篇讨论1969年新浪潮科幻小说《Stand on Zanzibar》及其“准确预测当今”的说法，并引出一场关于如何评价“预言”的争论。对写作者值得一读，因为它揭示了几种常见的论证偏差：缺少基线对比、只挑应验的例子、忽略落空的预测。写“预言式”作品或分析文章时，这些提醒都很实用。
可以直接用的写作要点
- 01
写“预测未来”的内容前先想清基线：你写的是新趋势，还是只是把当下现状换了个年份？
- 02
作者为制造张力会挑选戏剧性元素，作品因此显得“预测很准”，但那是筛选过的样本，不是全面代表性。
- 03
评判预测要同时看落空的部分：只举应验、不提失败，是典型的幸存者偏差。
- 04
具体而当下感的细节（暴力事件、性文化）会让作品在几十年后被读成“预言”，细节是说服力的来源。
HN 评论精选
判断“预测”需要基线对比，很多所谓预测只是描述1960年代现状，甚至趋势实际在反向发展。
不做基线对比，就很难判断某个说法算不算有效的预测——也可能他预测的其实是“事情不会从1960年代改变”。文中说疯狂个体的随机暴力（常发生在学校）肆虐社会，但1966年Charles Whitman在德州大学奥斯汀分校塔楼杀16人、伤32人，1960年代校园暴力事件列表也很长；就预测而言，“随机”暴力数量自1960年代以来反而下降了。文中又说年轻人偏好短期约炮而非长期承诺，可书成于1960年代，那是有效治疗性病与艾滋病出现之间的“自由爱”时代；对比同年的电影《爱丽丝餐厅》，Arlo Guthrie被刚认识的少女问要不要做爱，他拒绝了。短期约炮究竟是增是减，我不知道，但我敢断言这篇文章的作者……
dalke查看英文原文
It's hard to say if something is a valid prediction without establishing a baseline comparison. It could also be that he's predicting things wouldn't change from the 1960s. > (1) Random acts of violence by crazy individuals, often taking place at schools, plague society in Stand on Zanzibar. In 1966 Charles Joseph Whitman went to a tower on the campus of the University of Texas at Austin and murdered 16 people and wounded 32 others. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_school_shootings_in_the_United_States#1960s lists many acts of violence that took place at schools in the 1960s. In terms of a prediction, the amount of 'random' violence has gone down since the 1960s. > (7) Although some people still get married, many in the younger generation now prefer short-term hookups without long-term commitment. The book was written in the 1960s, in the free love era between effective treatments for VD and AIDS. Compare with the movie "Alice's Restaurant", from the same year as "Stand on Zanzibar", Arlo Guthrie (played by himself) is asked by a teenybopper he just met if he want to have sex with her. He turns her down, ostensibly because he doesn't want to catch her cold. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=c0jfwlWDgto#t=1271 . In terms of a prediction, has the amount of short-term hookups increased since the 1960s? Or stayed the same or decreased? I don't know. But I'm willing to assert that the author of this piece (which was repeated on many sites) doesn't know either. > (10) Motor vehicles increasingly run on electric fuel cells. Really? I thought they increasingly run on batteries, not fuel cells. Wikipedia says: > As of early 2014, there is limited hydrogen infrastructure, with 10 hydrogen fueling stations for automobiles publicly available in the U.S., I haven't read Stand on Zanzibar for a long time and it's not in my collection, so I can't investigate the other claims in any detail.
作者会为制造张力而挑选戏剧性元素，因此“预测”是被筛选过的，而非全面代表性。
我读过Brunner不少书，印象最深的是《The Sheep Look Up》，它基本上把所有可能发生的坏事都写在一起，而潜在的好事一件都没实现。当然，作为作者，你会挑选推动情节、制造张力的东西，而不是那些让一切保持稳定的无聊东西。不过有时，读了一辈子科幻，我真觉得自己现在“身处未来”——不像1995年人们还在电视上解释互联网是什么。也许这正是本文作者观察的来源：过去50年科幻想象的东西很多都成真了，这确实惊人。
ChuckMcM查看英文原文
I've read a number of Brunner's books, one that stuck with me was "The Sheep Look Up" [1] which was pretty much a composition of everything bad that can happen all happening and none of the potentially good things actually coming to pass. Of course as an author you choose the things that move the story along and create tension. Not necessarily the boring things which keep things stable :-). Sometimes though, having read a lot of SF in my life, I really do feel like I am "in the future" now as opposed to say in 1995 when folks were explaining what the Internet was on TV, and perhaps that is the source of the author of this article's observation. A lot of things that science fiction has imagined over the last 50 years have come to pass. That is pretty amazing. [1] http://www.amazon.com/The-Sheep-Look-John-Brunner/dp/1932100016
只举应验的预测、忽略大量落空的预测，是挑选性论证。
我几年前读过，印象中它有很多错误预测。比如它预言大规模人口过剩和粮食短缺，而事实上我们如今的人均粮食是史上最多的。
zeroonetwothree查看英文原文
I read it a few years ago, but IIRC it had many wrong predictions. For example it predicts massive overpopulation and food shortages, when in fact we have the most food per capita in human history.
同类还值得读
乔治·奥威尔1940年对《我的奋斗》的书评
George Orwell’s 1940 Review of Mein Kampf
这是奥威尔 1940 年对《我的奋斗》的书评，他没有简单谴责，而是认真分析希特勒的宣传手法为何奏效、又暴露了哪些思维特征。
小说与文学2022 · 499 分 · 545 评4 条写作要点编辑精选我们都是极客：尼尔·斯蒂芬森的文学作品
We are all nerds: The literary works of Neal Stephenson
这是一篇讨论 Neal Stephenson 科幻小说的文章，评论区读者围绕《Anathem》《钻石年代》《Snow Crash》等作品，聊世界构建、结尾处理和写作风格的变化。
小说与文学2022 · 307 分 · 220 评4 条写作要点编辑精选又一部我不会再去写的小说
Yet another novel I will no longer write
科幻作家 Charles Stross 讲述自己为何放弃一部已经构思好的小说：COVID-19 疫情让他的病毒灾难设定显得多余，现实给所有人上了一堂生动的疫情应对课。
小说与文学2020 · 304 分 · 169 评4 条写作要点编辑精选用图画写作：理查德·斯卡里与儿童文学的艺术
Writing in Pictures: Richard Scarry and the art of children's literature
这是《耶鲁评论》上漫画家 Chris Ware 写的文章，分析童书作家 Richard Scarry 如何用图画而不是文字来讲故事。
小说与文学2024 · 297 分 · 131 评4 条写作要点编辑精选如何写一部小说
How to Write a Novel
这篇来自 The Millions 的文章讨论写小说的两种路径——“计划派”（planners）与“即兴派”（pantsers，即“跟着感觉走、边写边编”）。
小说与文学2016 · 238 分 · 112 评4 条写作要点编辑精选