出版与作家生涯2021kevindangoor.com
区块链为何无法颠覆出版业
Why blockchains won't revolutionize publishing
导读
这是一篇对"区块链将革新出版业"持怀疑态度的文章，作者试图论证：出版业的核心问题（版权归属、合同执行、信任）是法律与社会问题，而非技术问题，区块链并不能提供解决方案。对写作者而言，它示范了如何把抽象的技术承诺放到具体场景里检验，也提醒我们在写作中处理"预测未来"类命题时该怎样把握分寸。
可以直接用的写作要点
- 01
论证一个否定性命题（"X 不会发生"）远比想象中困难，落笔前先想清楚举证责任，否则容易被反例击穿。
- 02
用真实的具体案例（版税纠纷、平台封号）代替抽象推演，文章的质疑才站得住脚。
- 03
区分"技术有可能做到"和"技术已经交付"，抓住承诺与实绩之间的时间差是很有力的论证角度。
- 04
即便立场是怀疑，也可以先承认自己的不确定，再提出可检验的标准，这种姿态比断言更让读者信服。
HN 评论精选
与其断言技术无用，不如带着怀疑去小规模试验，让事实尽早纠正自己。
如果说我多年看错加密技术学到了什么，那就是：证明"某事不会发生"这类否定命题极其困难，而且通常也不是面对新技术该有的方式。对一个新领域唱衰其实没什么收益。更好的态度是："嗯，我怀疑，但看看它会走向哪里，我自己试一点，谁来告诉我 X 有什么用。"因为如果你错了，你会更早发现。
carlosdp查看英文原文
If I've learned anything from being wrong about crypto-tech for years, it's that proving negatives like this is really really hard, and it's typically the wrong way to approach a new technology. There's really nothing to gain from nay-saying a new space like this, tbh. Much better to take the attitude of "hmm, I'm skeptical, but let's see where this goes, let me try it a bit, someone convince me why X is useful." Because if you're wrong, you'll find out sooner.
版税纠纷的根源是合同执行与法律权力，智能合约对此无能为力。
看看艾伦·迪恩·福斯特的例子。他与卢卡斯影业签了《星球大战》小说改编的版税合同。二十多年后迪士尼收购卢卡斯影业，决定停付福斯特先生的版税。区块链或智能合约怎么改善这种情况？
wombatpm查看英文原文
Lets consider the case of Allen Dean Foster. He had a contract with Lucas Arts regarding royalties for star wars novelizations. Fast forward 20+ years and Disney buys Lucas Arts and decides to stop paying royalties to Mr. Foster. How is this improved by Blockchains or smart contracts?
电子书授权随时可被平台收回是真实痛点，但解决它需要长期信任建设，而非仅靠技术。
我很抵触购买电子书授权，因为我担心亚马逊某个随意的客服人员能在一瞬间让我的整个书库消失，而我毫无救济手段。我想象一种系统：我买一本电子书的 NFT，它不仅授予我下载该书的许可，还授权第三方把电子书数据传输给我（大概收一点加密货币的小费）。本质上是一个法律上跨平台、可做文件存储的种子网络。如果数字图书馆既有转售价值，又能成为我一生乃至身后持续获取这些信息的可靠机制，我会更有兴趣去建设它。但要解决这个问题，需要建立大量信任，而这不会很快到来——至少还要好几年。
cwkoss查看英文原文
I have a strong aversion to buying ebook licenses because I worry that a capricious Amazon support person could make my entire library disappear in a moment with no recourse available. I think a system where I could buy an ebook NFT and that would not only grant me a license to download the ebook, but also authorize third parties to transfer the data of the ebook to me (probably for a nominal fee in crypto) would be cool. Essentially, a legal platform-agnostic torrent system as file store. I'd be much more interesting in building a digital library if it seemed like it could both have resale value and would serve as a durable mechanism for accessing that information throughout my lifetime and beyond. However, solving that issue requires building an amount of trust that will not come quickly - we are years away from this future at minimum.
潜力论证已经说了近八年，该用实际成果而非可能性来支撑主张。
看到很多"区块链可以……""有潜力"之类的评论。以太坊（我认为它是区块链超越加密货币的起点）始于 2013 年，那是将近八年前了。到了某个时候，你总得拿出实绩来。
leifg查看英文原文
Seeing a lot of comments in the style of "Blockchain could ...", "there is potential" etc... Ethereum (which I see as the start of Blockchain beyond Cryptocurrencies) started in 2013. That's almost 8 years ago. At some point you gotta show receipts.
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